About us and how the model works

BetMatchPoint calculates football match probabilities with a statistical model, publishes every prediction before kick-off and checks it against the result.

About us

BetMatchPoint is an independent project applying statistical analysis to football. We do not take bets and we are not a bookmaker: we publish probabilities, with the method and the results in plain sight.

The app and the website are free, with no account. Questions and feedback: info@betmatchpoint.com.

Where the probabilities start

The starting point is the odds of the most reliable bookmakers, those with the lowest margin. We remove the margin with Shin's method and get the market probabilities for home win, draw, away win and number of goals.

Closing odds of the most liquid markets are the most accurate public estimate available, so the model starts there instead of ignoring them.

What the model adds

From those probabilities we derive each team's expected goals and the distribution of every score (Poisson model with the Dixon-Coles correction for 0-0 and 1-1).

We then adjust for absences weighted by importance, points per game in the table and verified news. Our adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 percentage points.

Corners, cards, shots, saves and scorers come from team and player statistics over recent matches, with the referee and the official line-up when available.

How we decide what goes into the calculation

Every new variable is tested on past seasons the model has never seen. It is added only if it improves accuracy (log-loss) by at least 0.1%.

Examples: weather and a model built only on goals and shots did not pass the test and are not used in the calculation; they remain visible as information. Rest days, altitude and end-of-season motivation are being studied.

Transparency

Every prediction is published before kick-off and checked after the final whistle. The public record shows how many main predictions came true and whether the percentages match reality (calibration).

Minor leagues have a separate record, because the data there is thinner.

Responsible gambling

A probability is not a certainty: even a 70% outcome fails 3 times out of 10. Our numbers are statistical information, not betting advice. 18+ only.

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