How to read the predictions

A quick guide to percentages, fair odds, value bets and every market you find in BetMatchPoint.

The percentage

It is the probability the model gives to an outcome. 60% means that in 10 matches under similar conditions the outcome happens about 6 times. It is never a certainty: even an 80% fails one time in five.

Fair odds

They are the «right» odds for that probability, without the bookmaker's margin: fair odds = 100 ÷ percentage. Example: 60% → 100 ÷ 60 = 1.67; 25% → 4.00.

Use them to compare: if offered odds are higher than the fair odds, the model sees value; if they are lower, it does not.

Value bets

The value +4% tag marks outcomes where the odds available on the market are higher than our fair odds: the estimated expected return is positive (+4% = on average 4 cents per euro, in the long run). It is an estimate: single bets win and lose, and margins are small.

Where a prediction comes from

We start from the odds of the most reliable bookmakers and remove their margin. Then the model adjusts the expected goals for absences, table form (points per game) and team news, with a cap of a few points per outcome. The «Why this prediction» box on the match page shows every step.

The markets

Match result (1 X 2): 1 home win, X draw, 2 away win. Double chance: 1X, 12 or X2, two outcomes together.

Under/Over: Over 2.5 = at least 3 goals in the match, Under 2.5 = 2 at most. Goals: both teams to score, multigoal (e.g. 2-4 goals), goals of one team.

First and second half: the same markets for one half only. Half time/Full time: result at the break and at the end (e.g. X/1). Correct score: low percentages are normal, even the most likely rarely exceeds 15%. Combo: two outcomes in the same match (e.g. 1 + Over 1.5).

Corners: match total, per team, who takes more. Cards: total and team yellow cards, at least one red; the referee's strictness and the teams' discipline count too. Shots on target and saves: totals and per team. Goal minutes: e.g. «goal before 15'». Players: to score, brace, assist, shot on target; if the player does not play the prediction is void.

Markets calculated only by our model

Corners, cards, shots, goal minutes and players have no reference odds: we calculate them from team and player statistics. That is why they carry no value tag and should be read as statistical indications.

Market movement

The arrows ▲ +4 and ▼ −3 show by how many points the market probability has changed since the first reading. A big move often reflects news on line-ups or injuries.

Live

During the match the live box shows score, minute, goals and red cards, plus updated probabilities: every minute the model recalculates who will win, Over 2.5 and both teams to score from the score and the time left.

The accumulator

Tap + next to predictions to combine them (one pick per match). The combined probability is the product of the single ones: three outcomes at 60% give 0.6 × 0.6 × 0.6 = 21.6%. The more picks you add, the lower it gets. If you enter the offered odds, the app tells you whether the model sees value.

The record

Every prediction is logged before kick-off and checked after the match. In the Record you see how many we got right and how many the model expected: if the two numbers are close, the percentages are reliable. An honest model often misses single matches but is right on average.

Play responsibly

Predictions are statistical estimates, not betting advice. Only bet with licensed operators and with money you can afford to lose. For adults only (18+). If gambling becomes a problem, ask for help from your country's gambling support service.