What fair odds are and how to calculate them

Fair odds are the true price of an outcome without the bookmaker's margin: 100 divided by the probability. Examples and how to use them.

In one sentence

Fair odds are the odds an outcome would have if nobody took a cut: simply 100 divided by the probability in percent. An outcome with a 50% chance has fair odds of 2.00.

Examples

25% probability → fair odds 4.00. 40% → 2.50. 62.5% → 1.60. The more likely the outcome, the lower its fair odds.

Why bookmaker odds are lower

Every bookmaker adds a margin: add up the implied probabilities (100 divided by the odds) of home win, draw and away win and you get more than 100%, for example 104%. That extra 4% is the bookmaker's profit. We remove the margin to get the true probabilities, and from there the fair odds.

How to read it in the app

Next to every percentage you will find the fair odds. If the odds on offer are higher than the fair odds, the model thinks that outcome pays more than it is worth; if lower, it pays less. It is not a guarantee: it is a comparison between a price and an estimate.

A word of caution

Fair odds are only as good as the probability behind them. That is why we publish our record and calibration: you can check for yourself whether our percentages match reality.

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