Over/Under and Both Teams to Score explained simply

What Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and Both Teams to Score mean, how they are calculated from expected goals and which matches tend to have more goals.

Over and Under

Over 2.5 means at least 3 goals are scored in the match in total; Under 2.5 means 2 or fewer. The ".5" avoids a push: it is either 3 or more, or 2 or fewer.

Other lines

Over 1.5 = at least 2 goals, Over 3.5 = at least 4 goals. The higher the line, the less likely the Over and the more likely the Under.

Both teams to score

Yes means both teams score at least one goal, whatever the result. No means at least one team fails to score.

How we calculate them

We start from each team's expected goals, for example 1.6 against 1.1: 2.7 goals on average. From there the model works out the probability of every score and adds up those with 3 or more goals for Over 2.5, and those where both teams score for BTTS.

What really matters

Mostly the attacking and defensive strength of the teams, already reflected in the odds, and absences of key players. Weather, according to our study of over 12,000 matches, is already priced in by the market and does not improve the estimate.

An example

With 2.7 expected goals, Over 2.5 is usually around 50-52%. With 3.2 it rises towards 60%. With 2.2 it drops below 40%.

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