Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus prediction

Europa League · Wed, 4 Nov, 16:30 CET

Full time

Updated: Wed, 4 Nov, 14:18 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Rennes a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Olympiakos Piraeus 31%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Rennes 1.53, Olympiakos Piraeus 1.31.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Rennes: position 17 with 6 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-3-0), 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. Recent form: D D W D.

Olympiakos Piraeus: position 6 with 10 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-1-0), 4 goals scored and 1 conceded. Recent form: D W W W.

On average Rennes take 1.67 points per game, Olympiakos Piraeus 3.00.

Absences and team news

Rennes are without E. Lepaul, V. Rongier, B. Samba, A. Ait Boudlal.

Olympiakos Piraeus are without J. Roca, A. El Kaabi, M. Mouandilmadji, B. Popovic.

Team news, Olympiakos Piraeus: Greek press says Olympiacos coach Alguacil plans 4-5 lineup changes ahead of the PAOK derby, which follows this match.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 43% for Rennes, 27% for the draw and 30% for Olympiakos Piraeus. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 41%, 27% and 31%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.

Expected goals: Rennes 1.53, Olympiakos Piraeus 1.31, 2.84 in total. Over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Rennes win (41%, fair odds 2.42); double chance 1X rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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