Marseille vs Toulouse prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 1 Nov, 20:45 CET

Full time

Updated: Sun, 1 Nov, 18:07 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Marseille a 51% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Toulouse 25%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Marseille 1.92, Toulouse 1.30.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Marseille: position 6 with 15 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-0-4), 20 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: W W W W L.

Toulouse: position 10 with 13 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-4-3), 15 goals scored and 14 conceded. Recent form: W L D W D.

Absences and team news

Marseille are without D. Cornelius.

Toulouse are without R. Messali, M. Niflore.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 50% for Marseille, 24% for the draw and 26% for Toulouse. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 51%, 24% and 25%.

Expected goals: Marseille 1.92, Toulouse 1.30, 3.22 in total. Over 2.5 at 62%, both teams to score at 63%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Marseille win (51%, fair odds 1.97); double chance 1X rises to 75%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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