Alcoyano vs Mallorca prediction

Copa del Rey · Thu, 5 Nov, 21:00 CET

Updated: Tue, 3 Nov, 23:34 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Alcoyano a 15% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mallorca 61%. The most likely result is 0-1. Expected goals: Alcoyano 0.77, Mallorca 1.78.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Absences and team news

Alcoyano report no significant absences.

Mallorca report no significant absences.

Team news, Mallorca: Mallorca plays three matches in a week (Cádiz on Monday 2, Cup on Thursday 5, then away to Segunda): possible fatigue effect.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 15% for Alcoyano, 24% for the draw and 61% for Mallorca. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 15%, 25% and 61%.

Expected goals: Alcoyano 0.77, Mallorca 1.78, 2.55 in total. Over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 46%; the most likely score is 0-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Mallorca win (61%, fair odds 1.65); double chance X2 rises to 85%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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