Plymouth vs Berkhamsted prediction

FA Cup · Mon, 9 Nov, 20:30 CET · Bolitho Park, Plymouth

Updated: Sun, 8 Nov, 18:27 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Plymouth a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Berkhamsted 30%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Plymouth 1.74, Berkhamsted 1.38.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Absences and team news

Plymouth report no significant absences.

Berkhamsted report no significant absences.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 45% for Plymouth, 24% for the draw and 30% for Berkhamsted. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 45%, 25% and 30%.

Expected goals: Plymouth 1.74, Berkhamsted 1.38, 3.12 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 63%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.

Expected corners: 8 (over 9.5 at 29%). Expected yellow cards: 2.6 (over 3.5 at 27%).

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Plymouth win (45%, fair odds 2.22); double chance 1X rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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