Famalicao vs Arouca prediction

Primeira Liga · Fri, 6 Nov, 21:45 CET

Full time

Updated: Fri, 6 Nov, 21:05 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Famalicao a 38% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Arouca 32%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Famalicao 1.24, Arouca 1.12.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Famalicao: position 10 with 13 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-4-4), 15 goals scored and 14 conceded. Recent form: W L W L W.

Arouca: position 5 with 20 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-2-3), 13 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: L W W W D.

On average Famalicao take 1.00 points per game, Arouca 2.00.

Absences and team news

Famalicao report no significant absences.

Arouca report no significant absences.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 38% for Famalicao, 31% for the draw and 31% for Arouca. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 38%, 30% and 32%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.

Expected goals: Famalicao 1.24, Arouca 1.12, 2.36 in total. Over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 49%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Famalicao win (38%, fair odds 2.65); double chance 1X rises to 68%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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