Venezia vs Udinese prediction

Serie A · Fri, 6 Nov, 20:45 CET

Full time

Updated: Fri, 6 Nov, 20:05 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Venezia a 41% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Udinese 31%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Venezia 1.49, Udinese 1.26.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Venezia: position 19 with 6 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-0-9), 8 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: W L L L W.

Udinese: position 20 with 5 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-2-8), 12 goals scored and 25 conceded. Recent form: L L D L L.

On average Venezia take 0.30 points per game, Udinese 0.50.

Absences and team news

Venezia are without T. Correia, B. Franjic, A. Adorante, M. Šverko.

Udinese are without O. Solet, I. Gueye, V. Bayo, D. Alaba.

Team news, Udinese: After Runjaic was sacked, Udinese are coached by Paolo Zanetti, who is making his debut on the Udinese bench.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 41% for Venezia, 28% for the draw and 31% for Udinese. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 41%, 28% and 31%.

Expected goals: Venezia 1.49, Udinese 1.26, 2.74 in total. Over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Venezia win (41%, fair odds 2.41); double chance 1X rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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