Everton vs Coventry prediction

Premier League · Fri, 6 Nov, 21:00 CET

Full time

Updated: Fri, 6 Nov, 20:35 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Everton a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Coventry 17%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Everton 1.97, Coventry 0.98.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Everton: position 5 with 16 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-4-2), 12 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W W L L D.

Coventry: position 17 with 9 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-7), 10 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent form: L W L L W.

On average Everton take 1.44 points per game, Coventry 1.00.

Absences and team news

Everton are without B. Johnson, J. Grealish.

Coventry are without M. Grimes, A. Amenda, B. Thomas, B. Thomas-Asante.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 58% for Everton, 24% for the draw and 18% for Coventry. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 59%, 23% and 17%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.

Expected goals: Everton 1.97, Coventry 0.98, 2.94 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Everton win (59%, fair odds 1.68); double chance 1X rises to 83%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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