Sevilla vs Alaves prediction

La Liga · Fri, 6 Nov, 21:00 CET

Full time

Updated: Fri, 6 Nov, 20:35 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Sevilla a 50% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Alaves 21%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Sevilla 1.44, Alaves 0.85.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Sevilla: position 6 with 18 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-3-4), 17 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent form: D L W L D.

Alaves: position 10 with 13 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-4-5), 15 goals scored and 17 conceded. Recent form: D L D L L.

On average Sevilla take 1.55 points per game, Alaves 1.09.

Absences and team news

Sevilla are without Andrés Castrín, R. Ure, C. Ejuke, M. Sierra.

Alaves are without A. Rebbach, Jonny, Denis Suárez, M. Rodriguez.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 50% for Sevilla, 30% for the draw and 21% for Alaves. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 50%, 29% and 21%.

Expected goals: Sevilla 1.44, Alaves 0.85, 2.29 in total. Over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 45%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Sevilla win (50%, fair odds 2.01); double chance 1X rises to 79%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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