Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction

Bundesliga · Fri, 6 Nov, 20:30 CET

Full time

Updated: Fri, 6 Nov, 20:05 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Hamburger SV a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 32%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Hamburger SV 1.54, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.33.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Hamburger SV: position 10 with 12 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-0-5), 10 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: W L L W W.

Borussia Mönchengladbach: position 18 with 4 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-7), 12 goals scored and 25 conceded. Recent form: L D W L L.

On average Hamburger SV take 1.13 points per game, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.50.

Absences and team news

Hamburger SV are without N. Remberg, F. Vieira, N. Capaldo, B. Nadir.

Borussia Mönchengladbach are without H. Bolin, M. Nicolas, D. Hashioka, K. Diks.

Team news, Hamburger SV: Sebastiaan Bornauw is not yet confirmed for the match: after head and jaw problems, his fitness for Friday remains uncertain.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 40% for Hamburger SV, 28% for the draw and 32% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 41%, 27% and 32%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.

Expected goals: Hamburger SV 1.54, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.33, 2.87 in total. Over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Hamburger SV win (41%, fair odds 2.42); double chance 1X rises to 68%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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