Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction

Ligue 1 · Fri, 6 Nov, 20:45 CET

Full time

Updated: Fri, 6 Nov, 20:05 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Toulouse a 43% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Strasbourg 30%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Toulouse 1.62, Strasbourg 1.32.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Toulouse: position 10 with 13 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-4-3), 15 goals scored and 14 conceded. Recent form: W L D W D.

Strasbourg: position 13 with 10 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-1-6), 18 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: L W L L L.

On average Toulouse take 1.11 points per game, Strasbourg 1.11.

Absences and team news

Toulouse are without R. Messali, A. Donnum, M. Niflore.

Strasbourg are without F. Balde, J. Panichelli.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 44% for Toulouse, 27% for the draw and 30% for Strasbourg. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 43%, 27% and 30%.

Expected goals: Toulouse 1.62, Strasbourg 1.32, 2.95 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 60%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Toulouse win (43%, fair odds 2.30); double chance 1X rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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