Juventus vs Napoli prediction

Serie A · Sun, 1 Nov, 20:45 CET

Full time

Updated: Sun, 1 Nov, 18:07 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Juventus a 43% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Napoli 29%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Juventus 1.46, Napoli 1.16.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Juventus: position 7 with 17 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-2-3), 13 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W L W L D.

Napoli: position 10 with 14 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-2-4), 17 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: L W D L W.

Absences and team news

Juventus are without Z. Celik, F. Conceicao, N. Gonzalez, M. Locatelli.

Napoli are without S. Lobotka, L. Spinazzola, B. Badiashile, Alisson Santos.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 42% for Juventus, 29% for the draw and 28% for Napoli. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 43%, 28% and 29%.

Expected goals: Juventus 1.46, Napoli 1.16, 2.62 in total. Over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Juventus win (43%, fair odds 2.34); double chance 1X rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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