Newcastle vs Everton prediction

Premier League · Mon, 2 Nov, 21:00 CET

Full time

Updated: Mon, 2 Nov, 20:00 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Newcastle a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Everton 28%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Newcastle 1.63, Everton 1.26.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Newcastle: position 11 with 12 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-4), 13 goals scored and 16 conceded. Recent form: D L W L L.

Everton: position 5 with 16 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-4-2), 12 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W W L L D.

Absences and team news

Newcastle are without L. Miley, M. Fernandez-Pardo, W. Osula, E. Jaouen.

Everton are without J. Grealish.

Team news, Everton: Grealish excluded from the squad for breaking the club's internal discipline rules; his absence was already listed as doubtful, so only the disciplinary context matters here.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 45% for Newcastle, 27% for the draw and 28% for Everton. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 45%, 27% and 28%.

Expected goals: Newcastle 1.63, Everton 1.26, 2.89 in total. Over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Newcastle win (45%, fair odds 2.22); double chance 1X rises to 72%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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