Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna prediction

La Liga · Mon, 2 Nov, 21:00 CET

Full time

Updated: Mon, 2 Nov, 20:00 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Deportivo La Coruna a 45% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Osasuna 25%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 1.36, Osasuna 0.97.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Deportivo La Coruna: position 8 with 15 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-6-3), 15 goals scored and 14 conceded. Recent form: D W L D L.

Osasuna: position 16 with 12 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-6), 12 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: D L L W L.

Absences and team news

Deportivo La Coruna are without P. Aubameyang, B. Ede, M. Casado, Z. Eddahchouri.

Osasuna are without J. Herrando, A. Oroz, R. Del Castillo.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 45% for Deportivo La Coruna, 30% for the draw and 25% for Osasuna. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 45%, 30% and 25%.

Expected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 1.36, Osasuna 0.97, 2.33 in total. Over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 47%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Deportivo La Coruna win (45%, fair odds 2.24); double chance 1X rises to 75%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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