Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction

Ligue 1 · Mon, 2 Nov, 20:45 CET

Full time

Updated: Mon, 2 Nov, 20:00 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Lorient a 39% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Stade Brestois 29 32%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Lorient 1.31, Stade Brestois 29 1.16.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Lorient: position 12 with 12 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-3), 7 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: L D W W L.

Stade Brestois 29: position 11 with 12 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-3), 16 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: W L D W L.

Absences and team news

Lorient are without P. Katseris, B. Fadiga.

Stade Brestois 29 are without R. Le Guen, G. Versini, B. Chardonnet.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 38% for Lorient, 31% for the draw and 32% for Stade Brestois 29. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 39%, 30% and 32%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.

Expected goals: Lorient 1.31, Stade Brestois 29 1.16, 2.47 in total. Over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Lorient win (39%, fair odds 2.58); double chance 1X rises to 68%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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