Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Tue, 3 Nov, 23:30 CET

Full time

Updated: Tue, 3 Nov, 18:29 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Chapecoense-sc a 26% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Mirassol 48%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Chapecoense-sc 1.16, Mirassol 1.65.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Chapecoense-sc: position 20 with 21 points from 33 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-9-20), 33 goals scored and 68 conceded. Recent form: L L W L L.

Mirassol: position 14 with 40 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-10-14), 39 goals scored and 48 conceded. Recent form: W L D W L.

On average Chapecoense-sc take 0.66 points per game, Mirassol 1.12.

Absences and team news

Chapecoense-sc are without Mauricio Garcez, Rafael Carvalheira, Heitor, Vinicius Balieiro.

Mirassol are without Edson Carioca, Bruno Santos, Negueba, Jose Aldo.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 26% for Chapecoense-sc, 27% for the draw and 48% for Mirassol. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 26%, 27% and 48%.

Expected goals: Chapecoense-sc 1.16, Mirassol 1.65, 2.81 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Mirassol win (48%, fair odds 2.10); double chance X2 rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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