Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg prediction

2. Bundesliga · Sat, 7 Nov, 20:30 CET · Olympiastadion, Berlin

Full time

Updated: Sat, 7 Nov, 20:10 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Hertha BSC a 47% chance of winning, the draw 23% and VfL Wolfsburg 29%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Hertha BSC 1.99, VfL Wolfsburg 1.55.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Hertha BSC: position 1 with 31 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-1-0), 25 goals scored and 9 conceded. Recent form: W W W D W.

VfL Wolfsburg: position 4 with 19 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-4-2), 26 goals scored and 16 conceded. Recent form: L W D W D.

On average Hertha BSC take 2.80 points per game, VfL Wolfsburg 1.90.

Absences and team news

Hertha BSC report no significant absences.

VfL Wolfsburg report no significant absences.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 46% for Hertha BSC, 24% for the draw and 30% for VfL Wolfsburg. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 47%, 23% and 29%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.

Expected goals: Hertha BSC 1.99, VfL Wolfsburg 1.55, 3.54 in total. Over 2.5 at 69%, both teams to score at 69%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Hertha BSC win (47%, fair odds 2.12); double chance 1X rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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