Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles prediction

Eredivisie · Sat, 7 Nov, 21:00 CET · Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Full time

Updated: Sat, 7 Nov, 20:56 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Excelsior a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and GO Ahead Eagles 35%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Excelsior 1.57, GO Ahead Eagles 1.50.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Excelsior: position 15 with 11 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-2-7), 16 goals scored and 29 conceded. Recent form: L L L L L.

GO Ahead Eagles: position 8 with 17 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-5-3), 24 goals scored and 27 conceded. Recent form: W L W L D.

On average Excelsior take 1.00 points per game, GO Ahead Eagles 1.27.

Absences and team news

Excelsior are without S. Janssen, D. Garden, Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira.

GO Ahead Eagles are without V. Edvardsen, K. Haug, E. Linthorst, D. James.

Team news, Excelsior: Striker Nesto Groen is suspended and will not be available for the match.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 38% for Excelsior, 26% for the draw and 36% for GO Ahead Eagles. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 38%, 26% and 35%.

Expected goals: Excelsior 1.57, GO Ahead Eagles 1.50, 3.08 in total. Over 2.5 at 59%, both teams to score at 63%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.

Expected corners: 9.4 (over 9.5 at 47%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8 (over 3.5 at 51%).

Kick-off forecast in Rotterdam: 7.5 °C, no rain, wind 10 km/h, pitch artificial.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Excelsior win (38%, fair odds 2.61); double chance 1X rises to 65%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

Missing