ST Mirren vs Rangers prediction

Scottish Premiership · Sat, 7 Nov, 21:00 CET · The SMiSA Stadium, Paisley

Full time

Updated: Sat, 7 Nov, 20:56 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives ST Mirren a 9% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Rangers 76%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: ST Mirren 0.94, Rangers 2.84.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

ST Mirren: position 8 with 14 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-2-7), 12 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: L L D W L.

Rangers: position 2 with 27 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-3-1), 21 goals scored and 9 conceded. Recent form: W D W D W.

On average ST Mirren take 1.17 points per game, Rangers 2.18.

Absences and team news

ST Mirren are without R. Carr, Henry Fieldson, P. Nsio, Eseosa Sule.

Rangers are without D. Gassama, Findlay Curtis.

Team news, ST Mirren: Kabia, Agrafiotis, Baccus, Dijksteel and Ayunga remain unavailable due to injury.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 9% for ST Mirren, 17% for the draw and 74% for Rangers. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 9%, 15% and 76%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.

Expected goals: ST Mirren 0.94, Rangers 2.84, 3.78 in total. Over 2.5 at 73%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 0-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.

Expected corners: 9.3 (over 9.5 at 45%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7 (over 3.5 at 51%).

Kick-off forecast in Paisley: 8.6 °C, no rain, wind 4 km/h, pitch dry.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Rangers win (76%, fair odds 1.32); double chance X2 rises to 91%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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