Cruzeiro vs Bahia prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Fri, 6 Nov, 01:30 CET

Full time

Updated: Fri, 6 Nov, 01:05 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Cruzeiro a 53% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Bahia 22%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.89, Bahia 1.16.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Cruzeiro: position 3 with 60 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 18-6-10), 55 goals scored and 48 conceded. Recent form: W W W W L.

Bahia: position 6 with 53 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 14-11-9), 50 goals scored and 45 conceded. Recent form: L W D L W.

On average Cruzeiro take 1.73 points per game, Bahia 1.61.

Absences and team news

Cruzeiro are without Matheus Pereira, L. Villalba, William Furtado, Joao Marcelo.

Bahia are without Leo Vieira.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 55% for Cruzeiro, 23% for the draw and 22% for Bahia. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 53%, 25% and 22%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.

Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.89, Bahia 1.16, 3.05 in total. Over 2.5 at 59%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Cruzeiro win (53%, fair odds 1.88); double chance 1X rises to 78%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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