Concepción vs O'Higgins prediction

Primera División de Chile · Mon, 9 Nov, 00:00 CET · Estadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion, Concepcion

Updated: Sun, 8 Nov, 12:54 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Concepción a 33% chance of winning, the draw 28% and O'Higgins 39%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Concepción 1.28, O'Higgins 1.42.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Concepción: position 15 with 23 points from 26 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-5-15), 19 goals scored and 47 conceded. Recent form: L L D L L.

O'Higgins: position 12 with 31 points from 26 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-4-13), 30 goals scored and 39 conceded. Recent form: W D L L W.

On average Concepción take 0.88 points per game, O'Higgins 1.19.

Absences and team news

Concepción report no significant absences.

O'Higgins report no significant absences.

Team news, O'Higgins: Central defender Nicolás Garrido, a regular starter, has a second-degree muscle-ligament problem and is expected to miss Sunday's match.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 31% for Concepción, 31% for the draw and 38% for O'Higgins. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 33%, 28% and 39%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.

Expected goals: Concepción 1.28, O'Higgins 1.42, 2.70 in total. Over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1.

Expected corners: 10 (over 9.5 at 53%). Expected yellow cards: 5, with referee Francisco Gilabert (over 3.5 at 72%).

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a O'Higgins win (39%, fair odds 2.55); double chance X2 rises to 67%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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