Sydney vs Central Coast Mariners prediction

A-League · Fri, 6 Nov, 09:40 CET

Full time

Updated: Fri, 6 Nov, 09:05 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Sydney a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Central Coast Mariners 15%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Sydney 2.07, Central Coast Mariners 0.93.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Sydney: position 5 with 5 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-2-1), 6 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: L D W D.

Central Coast Mariners: position 11 with 2 points from 4 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-2-2), 4 goals scored and 9 conceded. Recent form: L D L D.

On average Sydney take 1.33 points per game, Central Coast Mariners 0.67.

Absences and team news

Sydney are without J. Hollman, A. Walatee, G. Hoefsloot, J. Farrell.

Central Coast Mariners are without T. Hisamatsu, T. Sainsbury.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 62% for Sydney, 22% for the draw and 16% for Central Coast Mariners. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 63%, 22% and 15%.

Expected goals: Sydney 2.07, Central Coast Mariners 0.93, 3.00 in total. Over 2.5 at 58%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 2-0.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Sydney win (63%, fair odds 1.60); double chance 1X rises to 85%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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