Vitoria vs Fluminense prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sat, 7 Nov, 00:00 CET · Barradao, Salvador

Full time

Updated: Fri, 6 Nov, 23:35 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Vitoria a 29% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Fluminense 42%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Vitoria 1.08, Fluminense 1.35.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Vitoria: position 15 with 38 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-8-16), 35 goals scored and 51 conceded. Recent form: L L D D L.

Fluminense: position 4 with 57 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 16-9-9), 55 goals scored and 42 conceded. Recent form: W W L L L.

On average Vitoria take 1.15 points per game, Fluminense 1.64.

Absences and team news

Vitoria are without Ramon, Zé Vitor, Nathan Mendes, E. Britez.

Fluminense are without Martinelli, Ignacio, John Kennedy, K. Serna.

Team news, Vitoria: Coach Jair Ventura was sacked on November 2; interim Cléber dos Santos, an assistant, leads the team after running this week's training.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 29% for Vitoria, 30% for the draw and 41% for Fluminense. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 29%, 30% and 42%.

Expected goals: Vitoria 1.08, Fluminense 1.35, 2.43 in total. Over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Fluminense win (42%, fair odds 2.40); double chance X2 rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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