Leganes vs Burgos prediction

LaLiga 2 · Fri, 13 Nov, 20:30 CET · Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes

Updated: Mon, 9 Nov, 18:18 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Leganes a 42% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Burgos 28%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Leganes 1.36, Burgos 1.06.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Leganes: position 17 with 12 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-7), 11 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: L L D L L.

Burgos: position 3 with 24 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-3-3), 19 goals scored and 14 conceded. Recent form: W D W W L.

On average Leganes take 0.92 points per game, Burgos 1.85.

Absences and team news

Leganes report no significant absences.

Burgos report no significant absences.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 43% for Leganes, 29% for the draw and 27% for Burgos. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 42%, 30% and 28%.

Expected goals: Leganes 1.36, Burgos 1.06, 2.42 in total. Over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 1-1.

Expected corners: 9.1 (over 9.5 at 42%). Expected yellow cards: 4.6 (over 3.5 at 62%).

Kick-off forecast in Leganés: 12.2 °C, no rain, wind 14 km/h, pitch dry.

Other factors

Rest days since the last match: 3 for Leganes, 6 for Burgos.

These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Leganes win (42%, fair odds 2.36); double chance 1X rises to 72%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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