Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo prediction

Copa del Rey · Fri, 13 Nov, 21:00 CET

Updated: Mon, 9 Nov, 18:18 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Salamanca UDS a 10% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Celta Vigo 73%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Salamanca UDS 0.93, Celta Vigo 2.62.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Absences and team news

Salamanca UDS report no significant absences.

Celta Vigo report no significant absences.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 10% for Salamanca UDS, 17% for the draw and 73% for Celta Vigo. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 10%, 17% and 73%.

Expected goals: Salamanca UDS 0.93, Celta Vigo 2.62, 3.55 in total. Over 2.5 at 69%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 0-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.

Expected corners: 7.6 (over 9.5 at 25%). Expected yellow cards: 4.1 (over 3.5 at 56%).

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Celta Vigo win (73%, fair odds 1.37); double chance X2 rises to 90%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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