Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga prediction

Eliteserien · Mon, 9 Nov, 19:00 CET · Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansand

Live · 89'

Updated: Mon, 9 Nov, 18:18 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Kristiansund BK a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Valerenga 46%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Kristiansund BK 1.76, Valerenga 2.11.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Kristiansund BK: position 15 with 23 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-5-14), 29 goals scored and 51 conceded. Recent form: W D L L L.

Valerenga: position 8 with 32 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-5-11), 43 goals scored and 46 conceded. Recent form: W W W L D.

On average Kristiansund BK take 0.92 points per game, Valerenga 1.28.

Absences and team news

Kristiansund BK report no significant absences.

Valerenga report no significant absences.

Team news, Valerenga: An illness outbreak in the squad left several players sick; the Saturday match was postponed to today.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 32% for Kristiansund BK, 22% for the draw and 46% for Valerenga. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 32%, 22% and 46%.

Expected goals: Kristiansund BK 1.76, Valerenga 2.11, 3.88 in total. Over 2.5 at 74%, both teams to score at 74%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.

Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 4, with referee Marius Lien (over 3.5 at 54%).

Kick-off forecast in Kristiansund: 8.1 °C, rain 0.2 mm, wind 31 km/h, pitch artificial.

Other factors

Valerenga has a new coach, J. Moesgaard, in charge for 39 days.

These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Valerenga win (46%, fair odds 2.19); double chance X2 rises to 68%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

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