Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar prediction
A-League · · Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Campbelltown
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Macarthur a 36% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Brisbane Roar 37%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Macarthur 1.45, Brisbane Roar 1.46.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Macarthur: position 6 with 5 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-2-0), 3 goals scored and 2 conceded. Recent form: D D W.
Brisbane Roar: position 8 with 4 points from 2 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-1-0), 3 goals scored and 2 conceded. Recent form: D W.
On average Macarthur take 1.67 points per game, Brisbane Roar 2.00.
Absences and team news
Macarthur report no significant absences.
Brisbane Roar report no significant absences.
Team news, Macarthur: Defender Jonathan Aspropotamitis and Bernardo Oliveira are out injured and unavailable for the match against Brisbane.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 38% for Macarthur, 26% for the draw and 37% for Brisbane Roar. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 36%, 27% and 37%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Macarthur 1.45, Brisbane Roar 1.46, 2.91 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 60%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 10.1 (over 9.5 at 54%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Adam Kersey (over 3.5 at 51%).
Kick-off forecast in Sydney: 16.8 °C, rain 0.2 mm, wind 30 km/h, pitch wet.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Brisbane Roar win (37%, fair odds 2.73); double chance X2 rises to 64%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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