Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory prediction
A-League · · Coopers Stadium, Adelaide
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Adelaide United a 29% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Melbourne Victory 45%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Adelaide United 1.36, Melbourne Victory 1.71.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Adelaide United: position 12 with 0 points from 2 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-0-2), 1 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: L L.
Melbourne Victory: position 9 with 2 points from 3 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-2-1), 3 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: D D L.
On average Adelaide United take 0.00 points per game, Melbourne Victory 0.67.
Absences and team news
Adelaide United report no significant absences.
Melbourne Victory report no significant absences.
Team news, Melbourne Victory: Defender Inserra, who came off early in the derby, is expected to be out for a few weeks.
Team news, Adelaide United: After the 5-0 defeat to Singapore in ACL2, the team returned to Australia from the long trip just before Sunday's match.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 30% for Adelaide United, 26% for the draw and 44% for Melbourne Victory. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 29%, 26% and 45%.
Expected goals: Adelaide United 1.36, Melbourne Victory 1.71, 3.07 in total. Over 2.5 at 59%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.5 (over 9.5 at 58%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7, with referee Daniel Elder (over 3.5 at 50%).
Kick-off forecast in Adelaide: 21.5 °C, no rain, wind 4 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Melbourne Victory win (45%, fair odds 2.23); double chance X2 rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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