Aldosivi vs River Plate prediction
Liga Profesional Argentina ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Aldosivi a 9% chance of winning, the draw 19% and River Plate 72%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Aldosivi 0.64, River Plate 2.18.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Aldosivi: position 14 with 8 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-8-8), 6 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent form: L L W L L.
River Plate: position 2 with 29 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-2-5), 22 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: W L W W D.
On average Aldosivi take 0.50 points per game, River Plate 1.81.
Absences and team news
Aldosivi are without N. Zalazar, R. González, N. Cordero, A. Werner.
River Plate report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 11% for Aldosivi, 19% for the draw and 70% for River Plate. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 9%, 19% and 72%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Aldosivi 0.64, River Plate 2.18, 2.82 in total. Over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 43%; the most likely score is 0-2.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a River Plate win (72%, fair odds 1.39); double chance X2 rises to 91%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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