Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Lanus prediction
Liga Profesional Argentina · · Estadio Alfredo Terrera, Santiago del Estero
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Central Cordoba de Santiago a 17% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Lanus 56%. The most likely result is 0-1. Expected goals: Central Cordoba de Santiago 0.79, Lanus 1.61.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Central Cordoba de Santiago: position 13 with 16 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-4-8), 11 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: L L L D D.
Lanus: position 6 with 24 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-6-4), 18 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: D D W W D.
On average Central Cordoba de Santiago take 1.00 points per game, Lanus 1.50.
Absences and team news
Central Cordoba de Santiago report no significant absences.
Lanus report no significant absences.
Team news, Central Cordoba de Santiago: Central Córdoba faces Lanús without a confirmed coach: Domínguez was sacked last Thursday, with Roldán and Contreras in interim charge. 11 matches without a win.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 18% for Central Cordoba de Santiago, 27% for the draw and 55% for Lanus. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 17%, 27% and 56%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Central Cordoba de Santiago 0.79, Lanus 1.61, 2.40 in total. Over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 45%; the most likely score is 0-1.
Expected corners: 9.7 (over 9.5 at 50%). Expected yellow cards: 4.1, with referee Álvaro Carranza (over 3.5 at 57%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Lanus win (56%, fair odds 1.79); double chance X2 rises to 83%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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