Instituto Cordoba vs Newells Old Boys prediction
Liga Profesional Argentina · · Estadio Presidente Peron, Avellaneda
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Instituto Cordoba a 52% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Newells Old Boys 19%. The most likely result is 1-0. Expected goals: Instituto Cordoba 1.42, Newells Old Boys 0.75.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Instituto Cordoba: position 9 with 21 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-3-7), 17 goals scored and 17 conceded. Recent form: D D W W D.
Newells Old Boys: position 14 with 15 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-6-7), 15 goals scored and 27 conceded. Recent form: D D D W L.
On average Instituto Cordoba take 1.31 points per game, Newells Old Boys 0.94.
Absences and team news
Instituto Cordoba report no significant absences.
Newells Old Boys report no significant absences.
Team news, Instituto Cordoba: Absent: Leonel Mosevich, suspended after five yellow cards, and Jeremías Lázaro, with a grade 1 muscle strain.
Team news, Newells Old Boys: Matías Cóccaro should stay out due to physical discomfort, not classified as a true injury.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 51% for Instituto Cordoba, 30% for the draw and 18% for Newells Old Boys. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 52%, 30% and 19%.
Expected goals: Instituto Cordoba 1.42, Newells Old Boys 0.75, 2.17 in total. Over 2.5 at 37%, both teams to score at 41%; the most likely score is 1-0. The expected total is low: the model expects a tight, low-scoring game.
Expected corners: 9.4 (over 9.5 at 46%). Expected yellow cards: 5, with referee Leandro Rey Hilfer (over 3.5 at 71%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Instituto Cordoba win (52%, fair odds 1.93); double chance 1X rises to 81%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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