Everton de Vina vs Concepción prediction
Primera División de Chile · · Sausalito, Vina del Mar
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Everton de Vina a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Concepción 17%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Everton de Vina 1.86, Concepción 0.93.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Everton de Vina: position 5 with 40 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 11-7-9), 43 goals scored and 35 conceded. Recent form: L D L W W.
Concepción: position 15 with 23 points from 26 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-5-15), 19 goals scored and 47 conceded. Recent form: L L D L L.
On average Everton de Vina take 1.54 points per game, Concepción 0.88.
Absences and team news
Everton de Vina are without L. Soto, V. Vidal, N. Baeza.
Concepción are without J. Henríquez, M. Sandoval, A. Jara.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 58% for Everton de Vina, 24% for the draw and 18% for Concepción. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 58%, 24% and 17%.
Expected goals: Everton de Vina 1.86, Concepción 0.93, 2.79 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 52%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 10.2 (over 9.5 at 55%). Expected yellow cards: 5.2, with referee Nicolas Gamboa Reyes (over 3.5 at 74%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Everton de Vina win (58%, fair odds 1.72); double chance 1X rises to 83%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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