D. La Serena vs Palestino prediction
Primera División de Chile · · La Portada, La Serena
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives D. La Serena a 38% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Palestino 33%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: D. La Serena 1.33, Palestino 1.23.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
D. La Serena: position 8 with 37 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-10-8), 40 goals scored and 42 conceded. Recent form: W D W L L.
Palestino: position 6 with 38 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 11-5-11), 39 goals scored and 38 conceded. Recent form: L L D D L.
On average D. La Serena take 1.31 points per game, Palestino 1.46.
Absences and team news
D. La Serena report no significant absences.
Palestino report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 38% for D. La Serena, 29% for the draw and 33% for Palestino. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 38%, 29% and 33%.
Expected goals: D. La Serena 1.33, Palestino 1.23, 2.56 in total. Over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a D. La Serena win (38%, fair odds 2.64); double chance 1X rises to 67%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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