Club Queretaro vs Puebla prediction
Liga MX · · Estadio La Corregidora, Santiago Querétaro
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Club Queretaro a 53% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Puebla 22%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Club Queretaro 1.80, Puebla 1.08.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Club Queretaro: position 12 with 20 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-2-6), 18 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: L L L L W.
Puebla: position 14 with 16 points from 15 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-4-7), 17 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: L L L D D.
On average Club Queretaro take 1.43 points per game, Puebla 1.07.
Absences and team news
Club Queretaro report no significant absences.
Puebla report no significant absences.
Team news, Puebla: The coach admits the qualification goal has failed: the Liguilla is now almost out of reach.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 53% for Club Queretaro, 25% for the draw and 23% for Puebla. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 53%, 25% and 22%.
Expected goals: Club Queretaro 1.80, Puebla 1.08, 2.88 in total. Over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 11.2 (over 9.5 at 66%). Expected yellow cards: 3.6, with referee Katia García (over 3.5 at 48%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Club Queretaro win (53%, fair odds 1.89); double chance 1X rises to 78%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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