Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction
Liga MX · · Estadio León, Leon
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Leon a 26% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Guadalajara Chivas 47%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Leon 1.23, Guadalajara Chivas 1.71.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Leon: position 9 with 22 points from 15 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-4-5), 22 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: L D W L D.
Guadalajara Chivas: position 3 with 29 points from 15 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-5-2), 25 goals scored and 14 conceded. Recent form: W W W D D.
On average Leon take 1.47 points per game, Guadalajara Chivas 1.93.
Absences and team news
Leon report no significant absences.
Guadalajara Chivas report no significant absences.
Team news, Guadalajara Chivas: Luis Romo, just back from a muscle injury, may have his minutes managed: the club has asked for caution after the international break.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 27% for Leon, 26% for the draw and 48% for Guadalajara Chivas. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 26%, 26% and 47%.
Expected goals: Leon 1.23, Guadalajara Chivas 1.71, 2.94 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 11 (over 9.5 at 64%). Expected yellow cards: 3.6, with referee Guillermo Pacheco (over 3.5 at 48%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Guadalajara Chivas win (47%, fair odds 2.11); double chance X2 rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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