Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction
Primeira Liga · · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Alverca a 52% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Casa Pia 21%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Alverca 1.65, Casa Pia 0.96.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Alverca: position 11 with 12 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-5), 14 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: D L L W W.
Casa Pia: position 15 with 8 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-7), 6 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: D L W L W.
On average Alverca take 1.10 points per game, Casa Pia 0.70.
Absences and team news
Alverca report no significant absences.
Casa Pia report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 52% for Alverca, 27% for the draw and 21% for Casa Pia. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 52%, 27% and 21%.
Expected goals: Alverca 1.65, Casa Pia 0.96, 2.61 in total. Over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Kick-off forecast in Alverca do Ribatejo: 20.2 °C, no rain, wind 3 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Alverca win (52%, fair odds 1.91); double chance 1X rises to 79%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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