Sporting CP vs Moreirense prediction
Primeira Liga · · Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Sporting CP a 86% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Moreirense 3%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.94, Moreirense 0.47.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Sporting CP: position 3 with 24 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-3-1), 24 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: W W L W D.
Moreirense: position 9 with 14 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-2-5), 13 goals scored and 18 conceded. Recent form: L W W L D.
On average Sporting CP take 2.10 points per game, Moreirense 1.40.
Absences and team news
Sporting CP are without Geny Catamo, Rui Silva, R. Zalazar, Flávio Gonçalves.
Moreirense are without Kiko, Maracás, Tiago Andrade, A. Duville-Parsemain.
Team news, Sporting CP: Paulo Fonseca is the newly presented coach and is leading Sporting for the first time in this match.
Team news, Moreirense: Forwards Duville-Parsemain and Kiko Bondoso are injured, and full-back Francisco Domingues is expected to stay out.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 86% for Sporting CP, 10% for the draw and 4% for Moreirense. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 86%, 11% and 3%.
Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.94, Moreirense 0.47, 3.42 in total. Over 2.5 at 66%, both teams to score at 36%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 8.5 (over 9.5 at 35%). Expected yellow cards: 4.4, with referee Joao Goncalves (over 3.5 at 63%).
Kick-off forecast in Lisbon: 19.1 °C, no rain, wind 3 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Sporting CP win (86%, fair odds 1.16); double chance 1X rises to 97%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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