Oxford City vs Leicester prediction
FA Cup ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Oxford City a 10% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Leicester 73%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Oxford City 0.89, Leicester 2.59.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Oxford City report no significant absences.
Leicester report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 11% for Oxford City, 15% for the draw and 73% for Leicester. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 10%, 17% and 73%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Oxford City 0.89, Leicester 2.59, 3.49 in total. Over 2.5 at 68%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 0-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Leicester win (73%, fair odds 1.37); double chance X2 rises to 90%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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