Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United prediction
FA Cup ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Bristol Rovers a 29% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Cambridge United 42%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.15, Cambridge United 1.44.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Bristol Rovers are without S. Forde, R. Smallwood, C. Kelly.
Cambridge United are without D. Ball, Isaac Heath, Callum Perry.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 29% for Bristol Rovers, 28% for the draw and 42% for Cambridge United. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 29%, 29% and 42%.
Expected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.15, Cambridge United 1.44, 2.59 in total. Over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Cambridge United win (42%, fair odds 2.36); double chance X2 rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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