Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction
Serie A ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Sassuolo a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fiorentina 40%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.50, Fiorentina 1.65.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Sassuolo: position 17 with 8 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-7), 16 goals scored and 29 conceded. Recent form: L L L L L.
Fiorentina: position 15 with 8 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-6), 15 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: W D L L L.
Absences and team news
Sassuolo are without F. Leysen, K. Thorstvedt, I. Kone, Y. Paz.
Fiorentina are without A. Atta, L. Ranieri, M. Pongracic, R. Sottil.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 33% for Sassuolo, 26% for the draw and 40% for Fiorentina. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 34%, 26% and 40%.
Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.50, Fiorentina 1.65, 3.15 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 64%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Fiorentina win (40%, fair odds 2.48); double chance X2 rises to 66%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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