Atalanta vs Parma prediction
Serie A ·
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Atalanta a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Parma 13%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Atalanta 2.18, Parma 0.88.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Atalanta: position 13 with 11 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-2-5), 16 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: L D D L W.
Parma: position 16 with 8 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-7), 9 goals scored and 17 conceded. Recent form: L W D L L.
Absences and team news
Atalanta are without G. Gaetano, R. Bellanova, T. Kristensen, O. Kossounou.
Parma are without A. Bernabe, N. Elphege, L. Valenti.
Team news, Atalanta: Sarri points out three matches in six days with a squad already decimated by injuries: a mild physical effect.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 68% for Atalanta, 18% for the draw and 14% for Parma. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 66%, 21% and 13%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Atalanta 2.18, Parma 0.88, 3.06 in total. Over 2.5 at 59%, both teams to score at 53%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Atalanta win (66%, fair odds 1.52); double chance 1X rises to 87%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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