Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk prediction
Scottish Premiership · · Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Heart Of Midlothian a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Falkirk 18%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Heart Of Midlothian 1.94, Falkirk 1.00.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Heart Of Midlothian: position 3 with 20 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-2-3), 24 goals scored and 17 conceded. Recent form: D W L W D.
Falkirk: position 4 with 18 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-3-4), 15 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: W W W W L.
On average Heart Of Midlothian take 1.82 points per game, Falkirk 1.50.
Absences and team news
Heart Of Midlothian are without C. Miller, O. McEntee, J. Wilson, T. Magnússon.
Falkirk are without R. Strain, L. McCann, B. Krauhaus.
Team news, Heart Of Midlothian: Hearts are without eleven players after the new injury to defender Kingsley, picked up in Thursday's away game in Switzerland.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 59% for Heart Of Midlothian, 23% for the draw and 18% for Falkirk. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 58%, 24% and 18%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Heart Of Midlothian 1.94, Falkirk 1.00, 2.94 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.9 (over 9.5 at 51%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9 (over 3.5 at 53%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Heart Of Midlothian win (58%, fair odds 1.72); double chance 1X rises to 82%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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