Celtic vs Kilmarnock prediction
Scottish Premiership · · Celtic Park, Glasgow
Live · 81'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Celtic a 86% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Kilmarnock 4%. The most likely result is 3-0. Expected goals: Celtic 3.41, Kilmarnock 0.73.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Celtic: position 1 with 28 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-1-2), 27 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: L D W W W.
Kilmarnock: position 12 with 9 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-3-7), 13 goals scored and 28 conceded. Recent form: D L L W L.
On average Celtic take 2.33 points per game, Kilmarnock 0.75.
Absences and team news
Celtic are without V. Sinisalo, A. Trusty.
Kilmarnock are without E. Ring, M. Stryjek.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 85% for Celtic, 10% for the draw and 5% for Kilmarnock. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 86%, 10% and 4%.
Expected goals: Celtic 3.41, Kilmarnock 0.73, 4.14 in total. Over 2.5 at 78%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 3-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10 (over 9.5 at 53%). Expected yellow cards: 3.6 (over 3.5 at 48%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Celtic win (86%, fair odds 1.16); double chance 1X rises to 96%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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