Auxerre vs Paris FC prediction
Ligue 1 · · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Auxerre a 17% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Paris FC 60%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Auxerre 0.96, Paris FC 1.98.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Auxerre: position 14 with 10 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-1-6), 13 goals scored and 24 conceded. Recent form: L L D W L.
Paris FC: position 2 with 20 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-2-2), 17 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W W L W L.
On average Auxerre take 1.11 points per game, Paris FC 1.89.
Absences and team news
Auxerre report no significant absences.
Paris FC report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 18% for Auxerre, 23% for the draw and 59% for Paris FC. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 17%, 23% and 60%.
Expected goals: Auxerre 0.96, Paris FC 1.98, 2.94 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Kick-off forecast in Auxerre: 7.1 °C, no rain, wind 4 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Paris FC win (60%, fair odds 1.67); double chance X2 rises to 83%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram