Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes prediction
Ligue 1 · · Parc des Princes, Paris
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Paris Saint Germain a 88% chance of winning, the draw 9% and Estac Troyes 3%. The most likely result is 3-0. Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 3.30, Estac Troyes 0.58.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Paris Saint Germain: position 1 with 23 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-2-1), 22 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
Estac Troyes: position 16 with 8 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-6), 7 goals scored and 17 conceded. Recent form: L W D L L.
On average Paris Saint Germain take 2.22 points per game, Estac Troyes 0.89.
Absences and team news
Paris Saint Germain are without A. Hakimi, M. Akliouche, João Neves, Marquinhos.
Estac Troyes are without P. Beach, A. Ouzenadji.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 87% for Paris Saint Germain, 9% for the draw and 4% for Estac Troyes. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 88%, 9% and 3%.
Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 3.30, Estac Troyes 0.58, 3.88 in total. Over 2.5 at 74%, both teams to score at 43%; the most likely score is 3-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 8.8 (over 9.5 at 38%). Expected yellow cards: 3.4, with referee Ruddy Buquet (over 3.5 at 43%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Paris Saint Germain win (88%, fair odds 1.14); double chance 1X rises to 97%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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