Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC prediction
K League 1 · · Jeju World Cup Stadium , Seogwipo
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Jeju United FC a 47% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Gwangju FC 26%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Jeju United FC 1.62, Gwangju FC 1.16.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Jeju United FC: position 7 with 46 points from 33 matches (won-drawn-lost 12-10-11), 39 goals scored and 37 conceded. Recent form: L L L W D.
Gwangju FC: position 12 with 21 points from 33 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-12-18), 30 goals scored and 69 conceded. Recent form: W L W D D.
On average Jeju United FC take 1.39 points per game, Gwangju FC 0.64.
Absences and team news
Jeju United FC are without J. Célestine, Jang Min-Gyu, Yu In-Soo, Italo Moreira.
Gwangju FC are without Yu Je-Ho, Moon Min-seo.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 47% for Jeju United FC, 26% for the draw and 26% for Gwangju FC. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 47%, 27% and 26%.
Expected goals: Jeju United FC 1.62, Gwangju FC 1.16, 2.78 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Jeju United FC win (47%, fair odds 2.13); double chance 1X rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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