Elche vs Valencia prediction
La Liga ·
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Elche a 43% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Valencia 29%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Elche 1.48, Valencia 1.19.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Elche: position 17 with 10 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-4-5), 14 goals scored and 18 conceded. Recent form: L W D D W.
Valencia: position 19 with 9 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-3-7), 8 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: L W L D D.
Absences and team news
Elche are without M. Aguado.
Valencia are without D. Otorbi, H. Elliott, D. Lopez, J. Copete.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 42% for Elche, 29% for the draw and 29% for Valencia. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 43%, 28% and 29%.
Expected goals: Elche 1.48, Valencia 1.19, 2.66 in total. Over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Elche win (43%, fair odds 2.34); double chance 1X rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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